Topic started by wellwell (@ proxy4.uq.edu.au) on Tue Jan 1 22:42:53 .
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Crouching tigers, sleeping dragon
Now that Sri Lanka has got a new prime minister, will peace finally wash up ashore? The LTTE has already spoken its mind, says T N Gopalan
ONE of the first comments made by R Sampanthan, the victorious leader of the Tamil National Alliance (TNA), was that he was not greatly excited by the United National Party (UNP)’s sweep in the parliamentary polls. ‘‘No Sinhalese party could be trusted,’’ he observed acidly.
Clearly the TNA, comprising disparate Tamil groups, is upset at the fact that despite its triumph in the North and the East, bagging as many as 15 out of the 19 seats at stake in the region, it would not be able to play the role of a king-maker in Parliament. It is a technically hung house, but with the support of the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC), the UNP is forming the government, and it has no need to turn to the TNA for its survival.
It is of course a precarious three-seat majority, but Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe could carry on for some time to come without bothering too much about Tamil sensibilities. The Sri Lanka Muslim Congress, a key ally of the UNP, represents the interests of the Tamil-speaking Muslims only, and there is no love lost between the Muslims and Tamils in Sri Lanka. The Muslims especially are still not ready to forgive LTTE chief Velupillai Prabhakaran for the overnight expulsion of thousands of Muslims from Jaffna back in 1990 and the many massacres in areas like Kathangudi.
There is another aspect to the story. Though most Tamil leaders across the spectrum, but for Douglas Devananda of the Eelam People’s Democratic Party (EPDP) vie with one another in hailing the LTTE as the sole representative of the Tamils, they quake in their shoes all the time, not knowing whether Thambi (as Prabhakaran is ‘‘fondly’’ called) would approve of things they say and do or even contemplate. In fact, LTTE’s official spokesperson Anton Balasingham has warned that the TNA MPs to ‘‘behave’’ or face the consequences. In a speech at London recently, he declared unequivocally: ‘‘The TNA candidates say that they deem the LTTE as the sole representatives of the Tamils and want the government to resume negotiations with us. That’s good, we’re happy. You will also win by invoking our name. But if you seek to play funny or create problems, our boys will be after you with garlands’’.
Loganathan Ketheeswaran of the Centre for Policy Alternatives notes, ‘‘I expect the TNA MPs to insistently demand that the ban on the Tigers be lifted and talks resumed with them, after which the TNA will happily step aside. But if the talks do not take off or the ban is not lifted, the LTTE would tell them, ‘That’s all gentlemen, you can go’, meaning they should resign. But it’s a bit too early now to speculate on those lines. Let’s hope that the LTTE and TNA get together and evolve a viable proposal to be placed before the government.’’
Douglas Devananda of the EPDP at last seems to have run out of luck. He will have virtually no friends now in the cabinet, but for a much weakened President herself. He did his best to organise some developmental work in Jaffna, but then by remaining silent on the PA’s war, excesses and insensitivities, apart from the atrocities committed by his own cadres, he has become completely alienated from the Tamils. President Chandrika miserably failed to appeal to the Tamils over the heads of the intransigent Tigers and only added to their miseries. Now the moderate leaders who themselves have suffered heavily at the hands of a murderous LTTE seek to cash in on the people’s disgust with the Chandrika regime.
But ‘‘riding the tiger’’ could be a dangerous proposition as Balasingham himself has warned in his speech. And the track record of Wickremesinghe does not give one much to hope for. While the People’s Alliance is on a nationalist trip. In the circumstances, Balasingham’s warning that his boys are only waiting to lunge for Jaffna acquires menacing proportions. One can understand why Sampanthan is not excited.
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