Know the Kashmir problem with respect to demography

Topic started by Indian (@ bl1051-3.me.iastate.edu) on Sat Jun 8 11:08:17 .
All times in EST +10:30 for IST.

Now all Indians need to understand some facts.
Jammu and Kashmir if taken as a whole is a muslim majority province or state. This includes Indian Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh, Pakistani Kashmir and northern areas and Chinese controlled Aksai Chin. All these regions constitute the entire J&K we see in our Indian maps. According to unofficial estimates if the population of this region is taken demographically we see that 70% or more are muslims.

Now the questions which arise are as follows.

1. If a plebiscite is conducted in this entire region and let us say the majority opts to stay with pakistan then how do the 30% non-muslim minorities live peacefully in a Pakistan which has no concrete secular and democratic traditions. Pakistan may introduce islamic laws and shariat after that the non-muslims will be definitely subjugated and finally forcefully converted to Islam or destroyed.

2. If the plebiscite has an option of an independent kashmir, and let us say the majority opts for seperate kashmir state, then what guarantee is there that non-muslims can stay there in peace without any hindrance to there way of life. Kashmir can become another Saudi Arabia with public beheadings and stoning to death and othe medieval dark age period stupid prophetical rules and regulations.

3. Now before the plebiscite is conducted there are some other things to be completed. China has to give back Aksai Chin to let us say a neutral international observer force and also China has to give back the 10000 sq. km territory which pakistan ceded to china in 1963. Does anyone even dream that a communist china with no democracy is to do that when tibet and xin-jiang are still under its illegal and forceful occupation.

Also most Indians do not know some of these facts too.

The indian controlled Jammu and Kashmir is divided into three regions.

1. Kashmir - Comprising the northern 5 districts. - 98% muslim now after the 10% kashmiri pandits exodus from the valley to other parts of india. This is the core terrorist area. Area the smallest among the three regions - 8000 Sq. Kms.

2. Jammu - comprising 6 southern districts. Poonch, Udhampur, Jammu, Kathua, Rajouri and Doda. This region has 70% non-muslims. Muslims are only 30% here. And these muslims are not the kashmiri muslims of valley but pahadi, poonchi muslims who are more culturally close to the urdu speaking muslims of india and pakistan. This comprises like 30000 sq. kms.

3. Ladakh region - comprises ladakh district and kargil district. 60% non-muslim. 40% muslim but shia muslims and do not like a merger with pakistan at any cost. shia muslims are in majority in the kargil district. Terrorism has not found much roots here mainly because these are shia muslims and do not side with pakistan. Bu they side a seperate kashmir islamic country if possible. Ladakh district almost 98% buddhist and want to join india.

So if u see the Indian J & K u can see that if plebiscite is conducted region wise then jammu and ladakh region will join India. It is only this small (8000 sq.km) but very very densely muslim populated kashmir valley region comprising the 5 districts that may opt for joining pakistan or a seperate kashmir.

In short the paksitani kashmir and india's small kashmir valley are the only places where people will vote for joining pakistan in a plebiscite. And since population is very very dense here if a plebiscite is conducted for the overall J & K there is a very good chance that the whole J & K may be merged with pakistan because these 2 region ( paksitani kashmir and india's small kashmir valley ) along with the muslim minority in jammu and ladakh region make up like 65-70% of the total J&K (Parts with china, india and pakistan) population.

So in short India cannot in any die hard situation allow a plebiscite to be conducted taking the entire J & K as one single entity for plebiscite. Because that will then be against the interests of the minority (non-muslims) with respect to the entire state who are the majority in two regions of Indian J & K.

May be in an extreme case a plebiscite which is region wise and not entire state base can be conducted but there is a very big risk that India will end uo the 8000 sq.km kashmir valley to pakistan. And kashmir valley is very crucial as it is the richest in the entire region in terms of revenue and wealth.

So in short it will be suicidal for any indian govt. to do anything but the following two options

1. Maintain the status quo.

2. If a chance is there get back POK and Chinese OK but it is very difficult unless chinese communism crumples and tibet becomes free and pakistan is defeated in a short war.

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