Topic started by Hemant Trivedi (@ 203.195.208.26) on Mon Oct 6 20:35:23 .
All times in EST +10:30 for IST.

I am reproducing an article which was published recently in the US. Is it a sign of India becoming IT Giant or US becoming an IT Minion ?

Responses:

• From: Hemant Trivedi (@ 203.195.208.26) on: Mon Oct 6 20:36:29 EDT 2003
  
  Software giant Oracle (ORCL, news, msgs) said it's moving 2,000
  developer jobs from the United States to India, doubling the number of
  developers it has on payroll there. Then Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, news, msgs)
  announced plans to close a customer-service operation in Florida and send
  the operation's 1,200 jobs overseas, again to India.
  
  Though negligible when compared to the sheer numbers of job losses in
  manufacturing, the shifts by two technology companies are alarming for
  what they likely foretell: no less than the relocation of millions of
  high-end technology and service jobs from this country to less expensive
  foreign venues. In the process, there will be a redefining of what
  constitutes “safe” employment in America.
  
  Number of U.S. jobs moving offshore
  Job category 2000 2005 2010 2015
  Management 0 37,477 117,835 288,281
  Business 10,787 61,252 161,722 348,028
  Computer 27,171 108,991 276,954 472,632
  Architecture 3,498 32,302 83,237 184,347
  Life sciences 0 3,677 14,478 36,770
  Legal 1,793 14,220 34,673 74,642
  Art, design 818 5,576 13,846 29,639
  Sales 4,619 29,064 97,321 226,564
  Office 53,987 295,034 791,034 1,659,310
  Total 102,674 587,592 1,591,101 3,320,213
  
  Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Forrester Research, Inc. All
  numbers have been rounded.
  
  It’s one thing to see a labor-intensive industry such as textile
  manufacturing shift to foreign soil, especially when the process has been
  going on for decades. It’s quite another thing to watch the United States
  lose jobs that require highly educated workers and the support of a
  sophisticated technological infrastructure.
  
  While current unemployment of about 6% isn't high by historical
  standards, there's no denying this trend toward job exportation.
  
  The next generation of vulnerable jobs
  A study by Forrester Research predicts that U.S. companies will
  transfer 3.3 million service jobs overseas by 2015, compared with just 102,000
  jobs shifted in 2000. Meanwhile, the payroll associated with those jobs
  will rise from $4 billion to more than $136 billion, according to
  Forrester projections.
  
  The early job exports are predominantly in the areas of information
  technology (including software and product development), customer service,
  back-office accounting and sales. Other major U.S. corporations that
  have sent service jobs overseas, where wage rates can be as much as 50%
  lower, include:
  
  Dell (DELL, news, msgs), which opened a customer-support center for its
  American market in India.
  
  Delta Air Lines (DAL, news, msgs), which established reservations
  operations in India and the Philippines.
  
  American International Group (AIG, news, msgs), which set up a
  processing operation in the Philippines to handle claims from its American
  General Life subsidiary.
  As the trend gathers steam, Forrester predicts, other and more
  sophisticated types of knowledge-based work also will be exported.
  
  The bottom line, says John Challenger, CEO of Challenger, Gray &
  Christmas, the Chicago-based outplacement firm: “It’s false to think the only
  jobs that could go overseas are low-skilled jobs that pay low wages.”
  
  5 safer sectors
  The employment picture does have a bright side, though: plenty of good
  jobs in growing sectors are essentially unexportable.
  
  Most are in services industries that figure to be among the fastest
  growing segments of the U.S. economy in coming decades. These industries
  run the gamut from fast-food server to physician, from security guard to
  bank president, and they can be found with employers both large and
  small.
  
  Challenger identifies five sectors with an especially low risk of
  exportation:
  
  
  Health care. “You can’t go overseas to see a doctor or nurse or get
  physical therapy,” Challenger points out. The aging of America’s
  population makes health care a good long-term career bet, he adds, singling out
  medical transcription and nursing as two particularly hot areas.
  
  Other in-person services. These are the jobs, like those in health
  care, that require a face-to-face interaction between provider and client.
  They are spun off by almost every human activity and interest. Teaching
  and training “of all kinds” constitutes one potential growth area,
  Challenger says, because “education is being thought of as more of a
  life-long thing.”
  
  Real estate. Just as land is not exportable, neither are many of the
  activities involved in its development. In addition to real estate
  service, the category also includes residential and commercial construction
  and the burgeoning home-improvement industry.
  
  Financial services. As usual, it makes sense to follow the money.
  America’s vast capital holdings have spawned entire industries dedicated to
  their preservation and growth. Like the money itself, the jobs
  associated with it will be kept at home.
  
  Security. One outgrowth of the war on terrorism is increased demand for
  all types of security and military personnel. “I see a lot more of this
  being needed over the next 20 years,” Challenger says.
  The services sector, in particular, is approaching red-hot status.
  General hiring in the services sector will be 22% greater on campuses this
  year than last, according to a recent survey by the National
  Association of Colleges and Employers, made up of college and university career
  counselors. And the most aggressive recruiters, says Bill Currin,
  director of Wake Forest University’s Office of Career Services, are those
  from financial services companies.
  
  Currin also notes that while government hiring is projected to be down
  this year, a worker shortage is developing at the federal level that
  will become acute in the next few years.
  
  Hot jobs for the short run
  Projections by the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics provide
  additional clues as to where the jobs will be in coming years.
  
  For the 2000-2010 decade, the BLS predicts, technology will account for
  eight of the 10 fastest-growing occupations, as measured by percentage
  increase. They are:
  
  Where the jobs are
  # jobs added % increase
  1. Computer software engineers, applications 380,000 100
  2. Computer support specialists 490,000 97
  3. Computer software engineers, systems software 284,000 90
  4. Network and computer systems administrators 187,000 82
  5. Network systems and data communications analysts 92,000 77
  6. Desktop publishers 25,000 67
  7. Database administrators 70,000 66
  8. Personal- and home-care aides 258,000 62
  9. Computer systems analysts 258,000 60
  10. Medical assistants 187,000 57
  
  
  Of this group, the two software engineering jobs would seem to be the
  most susceptible to eventual relocation overseas. The two non-tech
  positions -- home-care aides and medical assistants -- are the least so.
  
  When measuring the total numbers of new jobs created, the top 10 skew
  heavily toward in-person kinds of service jobs; food preparation and
  restaurant work, customer service, nursing, retail sales, and office and
  clerical work are among the occupations that dominate. Computer support
  and applications-software engineering are the only tech categories
  represented.
  
  Where technology jobs are concerned, it’s important to distinguish
  rapid job creation from an inability to be exported. As more countries
  achieve parity in their technology infrastructures, they could be magnets
  for jobs that currently are U.S.-based, depending on differentials in
  labor costs.
  
  An ignored jobs source
  Another potential source of export-proof jobs -- one that perhaps is
  being overlooked -- is America’s small-business community.
  
  While the BLS payroll survey indicates that 1.1 million jobs have been
  lost since the U.S. economy began to pull out of recession in the final
  quarter of 2001, its household survey indicates a gain of 1.4 million
  jobs.
  
  This discrepancy may be attributable to the fact that the payroll
  survey often fails to capture self-employed workers or those who labor for
  the smallest companies. The household tally, by contrast, does account
  for such jobs.
  
  So while looking for work that doesn’t travel well, job seekers would
  do well to think small.
  
  
  
  

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